Electoral College Map Hands Kamala Harris Another State

The state of Virginia has moved from a tossup to one which “leans” toward Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to forecasters.
On September 12, Real Clear Polling updated its Electoral College Map predictions to include Virginia among its list of states which leans Democrat, having previously suggested the race between Harris and Donald Trump in the Old Dominion could go either way. According to the polling data aggregator’s updated live tracker, Harris is currently ahead of Trump in Virginia by more than 5 points [49 percent to 43.7].
Virginia is the second state which Real Clear Polling has shifted from tossup to lean Democrat in recent weeks. On July 27, days after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed Harris in the 2024 race, Real Clear Polling moved Democratic stronghold of Minnesota and its 10 Electoral votes to “lean Harris.”
The move to include Virginia and its 13 Electoral College votes as leaning toward Harris puts the vice president and her running mate Tim Walz slightly ahead in Real Clear Polling’s Electoral College predictions over Trump and JD Vance by 221 to 219, with 98 votes in eight swing states still considered tossups.
Virginia is not considered a battleground state in the 2024 election, but it will be vital for Harris to hold onto the state which Biden won over Trump in 2020 by 10 points as part of her White House bid.
While Virginia voted Republican in all but one election between 1952 and 2004, the previous four presidential elections in the state have been won by Democratic candidates.
Harris’ and Trump’s campaign teams have been contacted for comment via email.
A September 10 survey from The Washington Post/Schar School, released on the day of the ABC live presidential debate, showed that Harris was ahead of Trump in Virginia by 8 points [50 percent to 42].
The poll also revealed that Trump is not significantly preferred to Harris on any hot topic issue of the election.
“Most notable not only is the size of Harris’s lead but that Trump does not have any issue advantage, unlike national polls in which he enjoys some advantage on the economy, immigration and fighting crime,” Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said of the poll results.
“Trump’s path to the presidency therefore does not run through Virginia.”
On September 11, a Virginia Commonwealth University poll also showed Harris had a significant 10-point lead over Trump [46 percent to 36].